Here are five things you need to know today:

– UKRAINE vs. RUSSIA. Trump’s new troika seeks trilateral negotiations.

– EUROPE. Brussels is caught between Scrooge and the Grinch. Of little importance.

– ISRAEL vs. PALESTINE. Peace Council launches its first initiative. We will understand the trade-off.

– IRAN. The war of words begins again. Forces manoeuvres.

– SOMALIA. Washington’s strange obsession begins to show. Its negotiation or its end.

1. UKRAINE vs. RUSSIA - President Trump's new troika seeks trilateral negotiations regarding the ongoing conflict

The Moscow leadership said Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Josh Gruenbaum, a White House official responsible for procurement, was “useful in all respects” and that trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine would continue, with the next meeting to be held in Abu Dhabi (February 4/5, 2026). Previous talks, which followed a meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky on January 21 in Davos, took place on January 23, with the same triumvirate representing the US. Gruenbaum, a recent addition to the Witkoff-Kushner peace engine, is a former investment banker close to DOGE. Along with diplomat Yury Ushakov and spy Igor Kostyukov, their main Russian counterpart, Kirill Dmitriev, has similar experience in corporate and public finance. For the Diplomatic Affairs community, Kiev does not want to be the fifth wheel in what increasingly looks like a trade deal between the US and Russia. Zelensky claims that territorial concessions are still unresolved (as is Putin). European NATO members, led by Mark Rutte and Alexander Stubb, close to Trump, are turning their attention to Arctic security. And while this is understandable, Eastern Europe remains at the mercy of fate. Pressure is starting to be exerted on Moldova, where, on January 22, a Russian drone was located.

2. Europe - Two sizes smaller, Brussels is caught between Scrooge and the Grinch

Zelensky criticized Europe’s lack of will, calling it “a fragmented kaleidoscope of small and medium powers.” Donald Trump said a deal had been reached for “full access” to Greenland, while suggesting that NATO members patrol the southern border. Some Europeans might think they had the last word in the discussion with Trump, agreeing to what he already had, but Trump humiliated his NATO allies without any consequences. As Zelensky pointed out at Davos, EU leaders have gathered for the umpteenth time, concluding by saying they want to “cherish” transatlantic ties. Some members continue to show determination – France seized a Russian-linked oil tanker called the Grinch – but others are still hesitant. For the business community at the decision-making level, Zelensky reserved his harshest criticism for the “Viktors” (meaning Orban) who want to be “Little Moscow.” This will not help Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU (which could become more difficult anyway if the bloc becomes a quasi-security alliance, as members like Spain suggest), but others will appreciate the wake-up call. Kiev may be the one currently out in the cold, but Europe, which has shifted its energy dependence to the US, should not be complacent.

3. Israel vs. Palestine – "Catastrophic Success" but Peace Council Launches Its First Initiative

Jared Kushner said he was aiming for “catastrophic success” in a lavish presentation on the “New Gaza” at the launch of Trump’s Peace Council. Kushner urged Israeli critics to “calm down for 30 days.” President Trump called it “a beautiful piece of property.” Some have criticized the council, which was approved under a UN resolution, as a diplomatic front for Trump-related real estate projects. The presentation did not assuage that criticism, but international figures like Tony Blair continue to stay, at least to restore its role as a peace broker (as opposed to a moneymaker). Traditional Western allies continue to largely shun it. Trump said Canada’s invitation had been withdrawn. For business, the Council has 26 leadership-level members, including Trump, who will be president for life. Two executive boards are made up largely of American and regional businesspeople and politicians. If Gazans can be relocated, this will have a positive humanitarian effect, but the emphasis seems to be on the commercial aspect. Meanwhile, Israel has moved its “yellow line” of control of the Israeli armed forces deeper into Gaza City. Hamas remains armed (although rumours of a deal persist). In conclusion, the Israelis remain cautious.

4. Iran - Imminent Disaster

The war of words is building up again. Trump said a “massive fleet” was heading toward Iran, though “we hope we won’t have to use it.” Tehran said the protests had stopped. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi used an editorial in the Wall Street Journal to warn of the high costs of attacking Iran. Araghchi said Iran “will not hesitate to retaliate with all the means at its disposal,” in contrast to the “restraint” it showed last year. Trump may be taking this into account, given the regime’s recent response to its own citizens. An internet outage continues to mask the death toll, but credible reports suggest at least 15,000 people were killed and 300,000 injured—a toll more closely associated with a civil war or rebellion than a protest, and comparable to the 1988 purges. Entrepreneurial POV: Trump is a proponent of the “madman theory in international relations,” as is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It’s difficult to predict how a second attack would play out, given Tehran’s back is against the wall. Trump’s generals and regional Arab allies will likely continue to act as moderating forces, as they did earlier this year. Israel also seems uninterested in regime change. Its stance on Syria is arguably more dangerous than it was under Bashar Al-Assad.

5. Somalia - On the "horns" of a negotiator who either makes or breaks the barter

Washington’s strange obsession is beginning to unravel. The son, Eric Trump, met with the president of separatist Somaliland in a hotel room in Davos, while his father, Donald, gave a speech in which he said Somalia was “not even a country” with a “low IQ.” Somaliland confirmed that the Israeli president also attended the meeting. We understand that Mogadishu has not responded to the speech or the meeting, but it follows a pattern in which the leadership in Hargeisa has sought out influential US intermediaries, including, it seems, Jeffrey Epstein, to negotiate diplomatic recognition. Some believe the risks are worth it, especially if Somaliland can host Gazan exiles and US deportees, as the leadership in Mogadishu claims, or a Dubai-style liberal city in Berbera on the Gulf of Aden, as a Washington think-tank has proposed. As a future course of action, much of Trump’s hostility toward Somalia likely relates to the Minnesota diaspora and its alleged role in a child care fraud scheme, as well as Somali-American Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, who has called the president’s attention “appalling.” However, other countries are also interested in the Horn of Africa, particularly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia (whose proxy war in Yemen is moving quickly), plus Turkey and Qatar, especially as shipping returns to the Red Sea.

Dr. Liviu Mihai DĂNILĂ was kind enough to let us publish the contents of this article once more. It was already published in Romanian on the 25th of January 2026 on ThinkLine.Ro - Sursa: https://thinkline.ro/abordarea-catorva-aspecte-geopolitice/.