In recent months, there is a lot of hot news about China in the media, both in politics and foreign affairs. I want to give some of my observations for readers for reference and thinking.

1. China-Japan Tension

China-Japan relation seems to fall to the freezing point. I think this is a temporary and will not last any longer. Firstly, the Prime Minister Takaichi[1] is not an Iron lady at all. She does not have her own inner circle within the ruling party. The real King Maker is Taro Aso[2] who is the grey eminence behind. Nearly all the cabinet members were chosen by Aso. Takaichi’s tough position serves two purposes: 1) in order to please Trump, and 2) to boost her strong image for sake of the coming election. Her speech on Taiwan was not accidental but she underestimated the response from China. Aso would support her in any event for winning the election. I think China will restrain to certain extent. Firstly, Beijing has snot recalled its Ambassador in Japan. Secondly, no actual Chinese naval ships have been deployed to cruise around Diaoyutai Islands[3]. I think Japan will show some concessions gradually while China will also moderate its economic warfare against Japan later.

2. China on US Attacking Venezuela

Trump’s New Monroe doctrine will certainly crash with China’s One Belt One Road Initiate in the Western Hemisphere. Lain America is a hot point for struggle between these two powers. In view of long distance, it was impossible for China and even Russia to directly confront the US forces by military means for Maduro. However, China may respond to by two means. Firstly, Beijing will resort to legal and regulatory measures for safeguarding its interests in Venezuela. Secondly, China will continue to use economic means for competition with US. For saving the economy, even a pro-Trump nation cannot avoid doing business with China. The Right-Wing Trump fan Argentine President Milei is a good example. I foresee that more conflicts between US and China in Latin America will be coming.

3. China in Middle East and Iran

Geopolitics are complex. From China’s perspective, a stable Middle East is good for sufficient supply of oil and energy for China and the One Belt One Road Initiative. Further, a counter balance against United State is also important. When Iran was under attack or in the recent unrest, some people questioned why China had not supported Tehran except diplomatic rhetoric. China-Iran alliance was only a paper tiger! Some even said that China has given up Iran. This was totally misconceived. China maintained close contact with Iran from time to time. For example, Tehran reported the progress of nuclear talk with US to Moscow and Beijing regularly before. China supports Iran not by sending troops. Apart from diplomacy, China can ease the effects of sanctions on Iran by economic tactics. Further, China can share its intelligence and other technical know-how of political warfare with Iran. All these may not be visible. China can even influence the positions of other Arabic nations such as the Gulf countries in any action against Iran.

4. Military Leadership in China

A recent hot topic is about stepping down and arrest of many high rank generals in China. International media said that this was a purge on military leaders by Xi Jingping. Are these politically motivated? or theses are corruption cases? It remains to be seen. However, we must understand that this will not affect the political stability of Chinese leadership. China upholds the principle of “Party directs the Gun”. Unlike some other countries, the military in China cannot influence the politics much in general. No military coup has happened in China so far. One point we should note is that Xi has not rushed to get replacement for these generals. Some commented that this showed his great mistrust for the military. In my view, he need time for choosing the successors of appropriate qualifications and experience. This also reflects that Xi is not very keen in military aggression. If he sees military power as top priority such as US or Russia, he will immediately look for replacement!

The above are some insights on the situation in China. I hope readers can may use them as reference when reading the analysis and news in the international media.

[1] Sanae Takaichi (born March 7, 1961) is a Japanese politician who has been Prime Minister of Japan and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since October 2025. She is the first woman to hold either of these positions.

[2] Taro Aso, a former Prime Minister (2008–2009) and long-serving Finance Minister, is widely recognized as a major "kingmaker" within Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Leading the Shikōkai faction, he has influenced leadership races, including supporting Sanae Takaichi, and remained influential amid party scandals.

[3] The Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in China and the Diaoyutai Islands in Taiwan, are a group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, administered by Japan. They were historically known in the Western world as the Pinnacle Islands. The islands are located northeast of Taiwan, east of China, west of Okinawa Island, and north of the southwestern end of the Ryukyu Islands.