The coup in Niger[1] that took place on the 26th of July represents a high security risk for Africa’s stability and that of the entire world. It has been highly criticised by the leaders of the international community. Both the ECOWAS and the African Union issued an ultimatum for the putschists, demanding that the President Mohammed Bazoum be reinstated.

ECOWAS threatened it would make use of force, should its request be ignored, a strong stand that has generated a reaction from Burkina Faso and Mali, both countries controlled by military regimes that came to power following similar coups.

Hence, on the 26^th July, general Abdourahamane Tchiani, the commander of the presidential guard in Niger started an “anti-republican protest” against the democratically elected president, M. Bazoum. A few hours after the start of the events, colonel Amadou Abdramane (Air Forces) made an announcement on the Nigerian State Television that M. Bazoum had been removed from power and let know the establishment of a junta – The National Committee for the Salvation of the People (NCSP).

While M. Bazoum refused to resign and defended on Twitter the legitimacy of his position as the president of the country, the NCSP spokesperson, col. A Abdramane stated on the 28^th of July that A. Tchiani was the new Niger leader.

Hence, the coup in Niger the first action since the removal of the former president, Mamadou Tandja, in February 2010, joins the series of similar events that took place in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad that marked the fall of democracy in the Sahel region.

Even if the coup in Niger could have tangible negative implications for the security of West Africa, the international reactions that emerged since A. Tchiani took over the power proved to be very diverse.

The USA and France condemned the coup and recognised M. Bazoum as the legitimate president. In order to express the USA’s solidarity with the Niger authorities, the US secretary of state, Anthony Blinken spoke with M. Bazoum on the 30^th July. Later, A. Blinken warned that “hundreds of millions of dollars” worth of funds for aid and security were in danger of being lost, unless “the democratic leadership” is restored. The US troops deployed in Niger – 1000 militaries – are stationed in a US base in Agadez (served by the Mano Dayak International Airport that operates flights to Algiers, Niamey and Paris).

For its part, France has desisted its development assistance to Niger. This leaves the future of the 50-100 EU troops in Niger, who are providing logistical support and infrastructure development assistance, in a state of uncertainty. Although France has not threatened to withdraw its 1,500 troops, which also includes forces previously deployed in Mali, it has evacuated some European citizens from Niger. On July 30, the French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to take "immediate and uncompromising" action if French citizens or interests are threatened, after thousands rallied outside the French embassy in Niamey.

The head of the EU foreign policy, Josep Borrell, announced the "immediate end of budgetary support" to Niger and the suspension of "security cooperation".

In the context of these negative actions, a complete interruption of Niger's security cooperation with the West is not inevitable. A. Tchiani's coup d'état is motivated mainly by personal ambition rather than the imposition of a new ideology. Adopting a strong anti-Western position could give rise to reactions on a domestic level that are difficult to predict and quantify.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also condemned the coup, possibly taking this position because it wanted to refute the rumours in the regional media regarding its support for A. Tchiani.

Other regional actors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), such as Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, issued more balanced statements expressing their "concern".

China's statement on the coup was similarly neutral and showed, first and foremost, concern for the safety of its citizens.

Russia's reaction to A. Tchiani's coup was a striking exception. While Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed a vague support for the restoration of the "constitutional order" in Niger, he accused the US of the double standards it used to condemn A. Tchiani's coup It also accused the USA for supporting the February 2014 "coup" in Ukraine that ousted former president Viktor Yanukovych.

And yet, despite the recent dispute with the Kremlin, the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin described the coup as a victory against Western colonialism and offered the services of his private military contractors to the Nigerian army. Although Russia condemned the coup in Niger, the Wagner Group welcomed the military takeover. We must not forget that E. Prigozhin, the mercenary leader, and his fighters have played a significant role in many African states, to the dismay of the West, and most recently arrived in the Central African Republic (CAR) ahead of a constitutional referendum.

However, it is unlikely that the CNSP, Niger's new leadership, should take the same road as the anti-Western military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso. In the context in which the USA and France see Niger as their last major foothold in the Sahel, the poor track record of the Wagner group in fighting terrorism in Mali could further discourage A. Tchiani from accepting E. Prigojin's proposals.

Moreover, international analysis concluded that both China's commercial interests in the region and those of the regional powers in MENA and Africa are in favour of Niger’s stability. Hence, all the decisions that will be taken in this regard should not depend on the nature of the regime from Niamey. A policy of pragmatic engagement of key partners, reflecting France's historical alignment with the late Chadian dictator Idriss Déby, or Washington's cooperation with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, could allow A. Tchiani's regime to avoid international isolation.

The prospects for a continuous Western counter-terrorism cooperation with Niger looks bleak, especially since, like the junta in Mali and Burkina Faso, the CNSP cited the "continued deterioration of the security situation" as justification for the coup.

We must not leave out that, during the first two years of M. Bazoum's presidency, A. Tchiani was a loyal supporter of the Nigerian government. A. Tchiani thwarted a coup attempt by Captain Sani Gourouza (Nigerian Air Force) against M. Bazoum in March 2021 and was later decorated by the Nigerian president for his "spirit of devotion, self-sacrifice, availability and loyalty".

In this context, A. Tchiani's coup is perceived as probably a reaction to the threat of his dismissal. The 62-year-old general was reportedly at risk of being ousted and faced the displeasure of his fellow members of Niger's presidential guard. A. Tchiani's controversial reputation remains a liability for him as Niger's de facto leader. A. Tchiani's close alignment with President M. Bazoum's predecessor, Mahamadou Issoufou, who promoted him to general in 2018, continues to polarize public opinion. In this context, there have been signs that show a possible conflict looming, between various groups and conspirators.

As Mali and Burkina Faso have experienced successive coups, the risk of domestic fighting triggering a second coup is rated as very high. Speaking of further developments, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) intervening in Niger is very likely, a fact condemned by the CNSP-aligned group. An argument to back that up is the fact that on July 30, ECOWAS gave A. Tchiani a week to hand over the power, imposed financial sanctions on Niger and did not rule out the "use of force". In the same context, on July 30, the African Union also told the military leaders who were responsible for the coup that they have 15 days to return to their barracks and restore constitutional authority. But when this deadline expired, Niger's airspace was closed due to the "threat of intervention from neighbouring countries". These were the words of the leader of the Nigerian coup, Colonel Amadou Abdramane, a statement that was broadcast on August 6 on state television. Moreover, the junta also warned on state television that any military intervention would be met with "an immediate and unannounced response from Niger's defence and security forces." It is noteworthy that ahead of the August 6 deadline, ECOWAS leaders met in Nigeria last week to organize a collective response to the coup and plan a potential military response, which the group said was a last resort. "All the elements that constitute a would be intervention have been worked out here and are being thought through, including the timing, including the resources needed and how and where and when we will deploy such a force," said Abdel-Fatau Musah, the ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace and security.

Because of these risks, A. Tchiani could be cautious and avoid provocative moves such as expelling Western forces.

Furthermore, we should not exaggerate the capability of the Wagner Group to replace Western forces. After Niger authorized the deployment of foreign counter-terrorism forces in April 2022, anti-French organizations such as the M62 Movement began organizing protests in Niamey. A demonstration in September 2022, which attracted several hundred participants, featured the slogans, "Down with France" and "Long live Putin and Russia". These protests were further inflamed by Russian disinformation, which claimed that France was looting Niger's vast uranium reserves to replenish its reserves for electricity production. Thus, it is worth mentioning that on July 30, thousands of pro-Russian protesters holding Russian flags marched through the streets of Niamey and tried to storm the French Embassy.

But here, on the other hand, on August 1, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, accused Russia of being behind the coup in Niger. It is worth highlighting M. Podolyak’s point of view, who pointed out that it is a standard Russian tactic to distract attention and expand the conflict, adding that E. Prigozhin's approval of the seizure of power through a military coup is proof of Russia's involvement in the unfolding events in Africa. We could say that it is clear that Russia is behind the so-called "military coup" in Niger, this development being categorized as a standard Russian tactic: to distract attention, seize the opportunity and expand the conflict in region. Moreover, it is important to emphasize that in the "family photo" for the Russia-Africa Summit held in St. Petersburg (Russia), on July 27-28, Russian President Vladimir Putin sat next to Ibrahim Traore, the young officer who took over the power in Burkina Faso in September 2022. Now, Burkina Faso and another country ruled by a Russian-friendly military junta, Mali have ventured to state that a foreign military intervention in neighbouring Niger, after the coup, will be seen as a declaration of war against them.

In the same context, we must not leave out here the US’ official opinion which emphasized that there was "no indication" that Russia was involved in the military overthrow of the democratically elected president of Niger. On July 1, when asked about Moscow's potential involvement in the turmoil unfolding in a West African country, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told the media that the Biden administration had "no indication that Russia is behind this, or that Russia was providing any kind of military support in any way or even effectively." However, it should be noted that the State Department added that "it would be wrong for Russia or the Wagner Group to try and take advantage of the instability in this country or anywhere else in Africa."

Another nation that has gone through a coup, Guinea, gave a separate statement, supporting Niger's junta and urged ECOWAS to "come to its senses". Their position as defenders of the events in Niger complicates international responses to the events currently unfolding in Africa. It also reflects what a UN study warned last month after it surveyed thousands of citizens from African countries that have recently underwent coups or other undemocratic changes in their governments.

As a result, it is important to emphasize here that the European Union (EU) and the UN have made their point regarding the coup very clear and expressed their support for the actions taken by ECOWAS. These international bodies emphasized the importance of restoring democratic governance in Niger and denounced any form of unconstitutional change of power.

In conclusion, we can underline that the current situation in Niger has significant implications for the stability of the West African region, but also of the entire world. Threats of force from ECOWAS and the African Union, counter-threats from Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea, the different positions adopted by major international actors, and the significant potential for a major regional power shift in Africa towards Russia and China highlight the complexity of the conflict in Niger.

As this status quo lingers, the international community will closely monitor developments in Niger and the entire West African region. As the crisis unfolds, it is essential to maintain focus on the people of Niger, who are caught in the conflict. The crisis must be solved by prioritising the reestablishment of stability and security in Niger and the entire region and preserving democratic values. The solution needs to be in accordance with constitutional procedures and without use of force, thus avoiding the outbreak of another war besides the one in Ukraine.

[1] Niger, officially the Republic of Niger, is a landlocked West African country named after the Niger River. Niger borders Nigeria and Benin to the south, Burkina Faso and Mali to the west, Algeria and Libya to the north, and Chad to the east. Niger has an area of almost 1,270,000 km², making it the second largest landlocked country in West Africa, after Chad. More than 80% of its surface is in the Sahara desert. The country's predominantly Muslim population of about 22 million live mostly in clusters in the far south and west of the country. The capital, and largest city of the country, is Niamey, located in the southwestern part of Niger.